API Factor At Play in Mayoral Matchup
Brown would benefit -- if turnout is high and folks don’t switch
By Joyce Nishioka, Janet Dang and Jason Ma

Percentage-wise, San Francisco has for the past decade been the mainland’s most Asian American city -- 1 in 3 of its 750,000 residents are of Asian descent (mostly Chinese) as are 1 in 6 voters. And what they do or don’t do in terms of next month’s mayoral runoff could determine its outcome.

San Francisco State University Professor Rich DeLeon, who chairs the political science department, predicted that between Mayor Willie Brown and Board of Supervisors President Tom Ammiano, “the Asian vote will go to Brown.” Indeed, when the Chinese American Voter Education Committee asked some 600 voters whether they would choose Ammiano or Brown in a runoff, 78.6 percent of Chinese American respondents and 58.7 percent of other Asian Americans said they would choose the mayor.

But, as DeLeon pointed out, turnout in the Dec. 14 runoff could be 10 percent below that seen last Tuesday, when about half of the city’s registered voters went to the polls. And while the scholar pointed out that Brown’s presence in Asian American neighborhoods and his accessibility to ethnic media are factors in his favor -- as is a tendency among older voters to be more pro-business and conservative -- it remains to be seen whether those elements can rally large numbers of voters a second time in six weeks.

In addition, some of Ammiano’s goals -- fewer chain stores, for example -- could attract Asian Americans who had favored former Mayor Frank Jordan or businessman Clint Reilly, who together captured almost 30 percent of the vote. On the other hand, his strong stances in favor of tenants and neighborhood preservation and against rebuilding the Central Freeway could drive many an anti-Brown voter into the mayor’s camp, as was the case for the city’s Republican Central Committee. The panel on Monday reluctantly endorsed the former Assembly speaker who five years ago successfully maneuvered to keep that legislative house out of Republican control.

But the city’s Republicans, who collectively make up 15 percent of its voters, didn’t let Brown off easy -- especially given that their decision would likely be seen as a guide by moderates that both the mayor and Ammiano seek to court. Committee members spent about two hours peppering Brown with questions about the $4.3 billion city budget (“for services San Franciscans have an insatiable appetite for,” explained the mayor); the hiring of new employees, (“I try to operate the city as I would my own business”); neighborhood preservation (“We’ve been so successful where we’ve put ourselves in a position where our problems are generated by prosperity”); and Muni (Previous administrations have robbed Muni like Muni has never been robbed before”).

On homelessness, Brown said, “75 percent are dysfunctional ... then you get rules and regulations that won’t let you move them along. ... I’m not the most hostile; I’m not the most generous. I am the most firm.” And on landlord rights, the mayor floated the idea of a study to look into the city’s rent-control system, but acknowledged, “I’m not going to be popular with one or the other.”

Republican County Central Committee member Rodney Leong said Ammiano had been invited as well, but he did not attend.

Christopher Bowman, political director for the San Francisco Republican Party, echoed the sentiments of many colleagues in saying Brown “goes overboard” in supporting organized labor but is a “moderate liberal” who has pushed for growth without raising taxes. He did get a new Giants ballpark off the ground, even if he couldn’t fix Muni in 100 days and more. Ammiano, on the other hand, is currently championing a far-reaching “living wage” proposal, and a couple of years back, suggested that each share of stock traded through the Pacific Stock Exchange be taxed.

To his credit, Bowman said, Brown has “back-pedaled” on supporting living-wage legislation that could cost the city hundreds of millions of dollars. “He’s not going to do anything that will put the city in jeopardy.”

In the end, Brown received 18 “yes” votes, two more than required; 6 “no”s; and 2 abstentions.

Leong voiced enthusiasm about Ammiano’s finish -- the first time that San Franciscans can remember a write-in candidate making it to a mayoral runoff. “Who would have thought that Tom Ammiano could put together a campaign in two weeks...and end up in the runoff?”

“This is great for San Francisco politics,” said Chinese American Democratic Club president Hayden Lee, whose group has been a vocal critic of Brown’s. “The people spoke.”

With all 646 precincts accounted for Tuesday and 6,000 provisional ballots to be tallied, the Board of Supervisors president and write-in candidate Ammiano garnered 24.9 percent of the vote, trailing Mayor Willie Brown by only 13 percentage points.

“Here’s to a real grassroots effort!” Ammiano said Friday. “This is quite a victory against corporate campaigning.”

AMMIANO’S OBSTACLES...

But Ammiano has much farther than Brown to go in garnering API support, according to the CAVEC poll. Among Chinese Americans, only 2.6 percent voted for Ammiano vs. more than 65 percent for Brown; among other Asian Americans, 49 percent said they voted for Brown vs. 12.2 percent for Ammiano.

But Ammiano has yet to get broad support from San Francisco’s Asian Americans. In the Richmond, where 32 percent of the voters are Chinese American, Ammiano got 20 percent of the vote compared to Brown’s 35 percent. And in the Sunset, where 33 percent of the voters are Chinese American, Ammiano received 13 percent to Brown’s 36 percent.

But DeLeon emphasized that Asian Americans are far from homogeneous in their political views. “If he concedes the Asian vote to Brown -- it’s just too big and too important,” he said.

He said turnout was lower in mostly white areas like Noe Valley and Sea Cliff than in increasingly Asian American ones such as the Richmond and Sunset.

By focusing on issues, said the professor, “it’s not too late to hold on to what he has -- then try to make headway.”

While DeLeon said there likely will be “opposition and resistance” to a gay mayor across all racial groups, Eric Mar of the Northern California Coalition for Immigrant Rights, emphasized that “homophobia is strong throughout the whole society, not just for Asians.” Gay Asian American groups, he said, could be key to fostering understanding.

“Willie Brown talks about building bridges,” Mar said, but Ammiano “really makes the effort to build bridges between communities.”

John Manzon-Santos, executive director of the API Wellness Center, said he doesn’t think the gay and lesbian API community will necessarily vote for Ammiano just because he’s gay. “There is no sense the community is voting one way or another,” he said. “I think API community is savvier than that. Both candidates have been extremely supportive of the constituencies I belong to; both are progressive. ... I would love to vote in this election,” said Manzon-Santos, who is an Oakland resident.

...AREN’T INSURMOUNTABLE

DeLeon said “young people of all races are supportive of Ammiano’s agenda.” He pointed out that voter dissatisfaction was likely a factor that propelled Ammiano into the runoffs, and if he maintains that momentum, it will “untap potentials,” he said.

“A lot of those votes were committed to Brown...now they’re free to jump on the Ammiano bandwagon. I don’t think you’d seen anything yet.”

Mar pointed out that Asian American voters, especially the majority who are immigrants, have ample reason to support Ammiano.

“Being an educator, he understands the educational rights of Asian and immigrant children,” Mar said, adding that Ammiano has consistently supported immigrant rights organizations.

Many of the city’s contracted workers in the healthcare and service industries are immigrants who would benefit having the living wage ordinance, Mar added.

This year, the supervisor championed the “living wage” concept for San Francisco workers, as well as Prop. F, which voters passed last week to prevent banks from charging certain ATM fees. In 1996, he sponsored the voter-approved proposition to return to district elections for the Board of Supervisors next year, and he also formed the Accountability for Non-Profits Task Force, pushing for non-profits that receive city money to comply to principles of open government.

Ammiano has also sponsored forums to facilitate community responses to hate crimes in the lesbian/ gay, Asian, and Southeast Asian communities. He pushed for and supported successful legislative efforts over the past three years to limit owner-move-in evictions and last year put forth a “people’s budget” that would have upped spending on social programs.

To Bowman, the Republican political director, that makes Ammiano worse than a “tax-and-spend liberal” -- he’s a “communist.”

Most Asian American groups aren’t going that far; in fact , one of the more moderate ones -- the Chinese American Democratic Club -- isn’t discounting the possibility of an Ammiano endorsement. Club president Hayden Lee, in fact, acknowledged that now that Reilly is out of the race, he has gotten the impression that “not too many members are pro-Willie Brown” and some “are close to Tom Ammiano,” though they have yet to make an official endorsement for either mayoral candidate, which is scheduled for a final vote Nov. 18. But most would agree with Fil-Am Democratic Club, Inc. treasurer Rebecca Delgado that Ammiano, while a commendable character, is simply “too radical.”

The ATM fee ban, expected to be challenged in court, would hurt some smaller, Filipino-owned banks rather than the large, national banks who are regulated only by federal agencies.

“Without Ammiano really doing a whole lot of study -- it’s so unfortunate the way it was worded,” she said of the measure’s author. “It was like marketing. The masses will buy into that.”

Discussions so far, have emphasized Ammiano and Brown’s differences. But in almost any other city in the United States, both would be considered liberal. In San Francisco, the city where openly Republican politicians are almost non-existent, the two pro-gay, pro-labor, pro-affirmative action candidates make for an interesting dynamic.

“This election goes beyond race and sexual orientation,” said Manzon-Santos. “If you got a very conservative candidate running against Brown, the vote would be easy. But [with Brown and Ammiano], neither has a clear advantage. This election goes beyond just identity politics. What will be important is where the two candidates stand on the issues.”