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RELATED ELECTION COVERAGE:
BONDS IN BONDAGE: Nearly $350 million in local bond measures are buried in San Francisco’s March 7 ballot book. Not to be forgotten are another $4.7 billion in five state bond measures. It maybe a disproportionate burden for San Francisco’s over 60,000 Asian American, home-owning voters. Potentially in a low turnout election, they can kill a bond measure, which is why last November’s $299 million Laguna Honda Hospital bond supporters assiduously courted them. To compare, less than 30 percent of citywide voters are homeowners. Homeowners bear part of bond obligations through property taxes. The city controller has disclosed that property owners pay $402 for bond debt on a home assessed at $300,000. But as of December 1999, the median house value was assessed at $415,000, meaning in this over-heated housing market, homeowners pay $556 for bond debt. As property taxes increase, bond measures have become more difficult to pass with a two-thirds margin. In the past decade on average, 35 percent of San Franciscans voted against 27 general obligation bonds. Only 14 of 27 bonds passed. To contrast, in the 1980s, all eight proposed bonds passed, averaging only 22 percent opposition. The latest response to rising bond opposition is Proposition 26, a constitutional amendment that would require a majority, rather than two-thirds margin, for passage of local school bonds. Meanwhile, supervisor and finance chair Leland Yee has called for more accounting of the funds generated from local bond sales. His colleague Gavin Newsom inserted language into Proposition C, the Open Space Fund, to require more public input and specific plans for use of property taxes. Supporters of the DeYoung Museum bonds turned to the private sector after two stinging, narrow defeats in 1996 and 1998. TURNOUT IS KEY: Opponents of bond measures need more than one-third of voters to derail Proposition A, a $110 million recreation and park bond, and Proposition B, a $87 million California Academy of Sciences bond. Chances for their passage will increase with a higher turnout, which may be effected by the dynamics of the presidential race and Proposition 22, the so-called Knight Initiative, which would ban same-sex marriages in California. Both races will draw in voters that may help or hurt the two bond measures. At the top of the ballot, the Republican presidential nomination between Arizona U.S. Senator John McCain and Texas Governor George Bush may still be competitive when San Franciscans make their selection on March 7. On the Democratic side, former New U.S. Senator Bill Bradley’s fight in California might not be, given Vice President Al Gore’s already huge lead in this state. What’s the impact of the presidential race? Given that McCain and Bush are two conservatives, they’re likely to attract like minded, fiscally prudent voters, who are likely to vote against the bond measures. At the same time, a competitive Democratic race between Bradley and Gore would help increase turnout of Democrats, who would likely help pass the two bond measures. But then again, even those who select a presidential candidate might not vote the entire ballot. Four years ago, 41 percent of San Francisco’s electorate voted but only 36 to 37 percent made a decision on the propositions for Moscone Center improvements and PacBell ballpark. Eric Jaye of Proposition A and Tom Hsieh of Proposition B agree that their propositions’ chances may hinge on turnout generated by other ballot races. They are also blunting any opposition. For example, the local Republican Party has endorsed the measures and received $7000 from Propositions A, B, and C to underwrite the party’s slate mailer. WHITE KNIGHT: At the same time, they’re pinning their hopes on the Knight Initiative (Proposition 22), which may win statewide, but will likely lose overwhelmingly in San Francisco. Liberal and gay/lesbian voters will likely help the prospects of Propositions A and B. These same voters, who came out in support of Tom Ammiano in his mayoral bid last November, helped progressive District Attorney Terence Hallinan surge ahead of his challengers and clinch first place for a December runoff. They also secured victories for the Octavia Boulevard Plan/Central Freeway demolition and increased the Laguna Honda Hospital bond’s victory margin. DONE SOME DIM SUM?: E-mail your soy saucy comments to potsticker@prodigy.net or samson@sfindependent.com. Calls accepted at 415-826-1100, ext 23.
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