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Arms Showdown — Selling Arms to Taiwan

An Aegis class guided missile destroyer.

By Ron Chepesiuk

The recent spy plane standoff highlighted the precarious state of U.S.-China relations. It also set the stage for what could have been the most explosive issue facing the two nations: U.S. sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan.

On Monday, though, Bush rejected Taiwan’s request to buy U.S. destroyers equipped with high-tech combat radar, but left open the possibility of future sales if China continues to pose a military threat to the island.

Among the weapons Taiwan had sought were four $1 billion Arleigh Burke-class destroyers equipped with the advanced Aegis weapons system that can simultaneously track naval and air targets. The president approved the sale of four Kidd-class destroyers, a less potent weapon than the Aegis system.

During his weeklong visit, Vice Premier Qian Qichen downplayed reports of a Chinese military buildup, but hinted that it might expand military capability if the United States sold arms to Taiwan.

Warned Qian: “To sell weapons to parts of the territory of another sovereign state, whether the weapons are defensive or offensive, won’t stand … The more weapons you sell, the more we will prepare ourselves in terms of our national defense. This is logical.”

Other prominent Chinese politicians have applied pressure on the United States, as well. On March 6, for example, Foreign Minister Tang Jiaxun also urged the Bush administration to back off from selling arms to Taiwan. Tang said that selling weapons “would send a wrong signal to the Taiwanese authorities, and will encourage a very small number of people — the Taiwan independence elements — to continue to engage in separatist activities.”

Not Just China and the United States

China has linked the sale of arms to Taiwan with U.S. economic interests in East Asia. On Feb. 27, Zhou Mingwei, Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office (TAO), which is under the State Council of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), told China’s official Xinhua News Agency that “arms sales is a political issue. It would not only hurt U.S.-China relations, but also hurt U.S. interests in the region. To plough in such a hot spot could be explosive at any time, eventually hurting bilateral relations, as well as U.S. interests.”

Asian nations are worried, as well. As China modernizes and continues its economic expansion, it has become an increasingly important trading partner for many Asian countries.

“Almost all Asian nations are satisfied with the status quo, and worry about actions China might take to upset the current delicate balance existing in Asia,” said Balbina Hwang, a research fellow at the Washington, D.C.-based Heritage Foundation. “Certainly, they fear they will have to take sides if a serious conflict erupts between China and Taiwan.”

That delicate balance was in evidence this week. On April 20, Japan, in the face of PRC outrage, granted a visa on humanitarian grounds to former Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, for treatment of his heart condition. Lee was allowed into Japan on the condition that he refrains from political activity, but China said his visit could seriously damage diplomatic ties between the two countries. “Lee wants the stage of Japan to spread his separatist remarks to the international community,” the Xinhua News Agency charged in an editorial commentary.

Looking Back, Forward

Beijing has moved forward aggressively on its anti-arms sales campaign, even though the country has a lot to lose — namely, permanent trade status with the United States, membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the possibility of hosting the 2008 Olympics.

Having reclaimed Hong Kong and Macau, China is now intent on reunifying with Taiwan, a country of 23 million people which has been outside Beijing’s control since the communists came to power in 1949. The United States has long recognized Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is a part of China, but it has remained firm on its position that Taiwan not be forced into reunification.

“The Chinese have said they want peaceful reunification, but there’s no doubt they would use force if Taiwan declared independence,” said Charles Hill, diplomatic resident at Yale University and a specialist on modern China.

Beijing claims the United States agreed to curtail arms sales to Taiwan in a 1982 communiqué signed by then-President Ronald Reagan and Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang. The United States, on the other hand, says that it has an obligation under the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 to sell arms to Taiwan for defensive purposes.

A major element in the Taiwan issue has been China’s move to build its military strength to a level commensurate with its growing regional and international influence. China has the strategic goal of modernizing its military, and, to do that, its has spent a lot of money buying the weapons it needs from abroad.

According to the U.S. Secretary of Defense’s “Annual Report on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” which by law must be submitted to Congress, Beijing’s primary objective is to prevent any move by Taiwan for independence, while working toward eventual reunification under its terms.

Early this year, Chinese Finance Minister Xiang Huaicheng announced in his annual budget speech to the legislature that defense spending would be boosted by 17.7 percent. China’s official defense budget this year will be $17 billion. The United States spends some $325 billion. Analysts, however, estimate that the Chinese military is roughly three times the size the official figures show.

According to the Secretary of Defense 2000 report on the PRC, China’s military strategy since the early 1990s has been to prepare for potential military confrontations along its southeastern flank, especially in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. China hopes to acquire capabilities that will give it the ability to counter military improvements by Taiwan, as well as prepare for any force the United States might bring to bear in a regional conflict.

Reportedly, China has as many as 300 short-range ballistic missiles pointed at Taiwan. Analysts have said that China’s strategic goal is to use its growing missile arsenal to “command control, communications and computer systems” in the case of a battle.

U.S. military analysts believe that Taiwan needed new weapons. Earlier this year, a group of officers from the U.S. Pacific Fleet visited Taiwan to assess its military needs. The group’s written review became public in early April. The officers concluded that Taiwan required several new weapons, including the Aegis system, submarines and destroyers, to protect itself in case of a war.

It’s no surprise that the Chinese were adamantly opposed to the United States selling the Aegis system to Taiwan. Military analysts believe the system could prevent China from launching a first strike, and some believe it could block as much as 70 percent of China’s missiles from hitting their targets.

Richard Belsky, a professor of history at Hunter College in New York City, believes some level of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan is appropriate, but selling the Aegis system and the other sophisticated technical equipment would have been a mistake.

“I think such sales would [have] resulted in unfortunate consequences for all sides, and would be inconsistent with American commitments and previously established foreign policy principles,” Belsky said. “China is a an emerging military power, and it’s going to be extremely difficult for a small island to defend itself. The U.S. can’t simply use military means alone to protect its ally. That’s a dead-end route.”