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Major League Guessing Game

Surviving the road to “The Show”

By Ethen Lieser

The major league scout has one simple job: Find the best young talent around. The scout, with his sunburned neck and a low-fitted baseball cap, positions himself right behind the backstop to get an umpire-view of the prized pitcher. The scout squints behind his sunglasses and wields a radar gun with the passion of a long-lost sea captain telescoping for land. Pitch after pitch, the scout takes out his notepad and records the velocity. If the fastball hits 90 mph, the scout salivates.

“Velocity is the first thing we look at,” says Eric Tokunaga, a Kansas City Royals scout for nine years. “You can’t teach that.”

Any pitcher who can snap a fastball at 90 mph is special. But that doesn’t necessarily guarantee a one-way ticket to the big leagues. To reach the major leagues, the ballplayer needs to be armadillo-tough. In most cases, the road to actually buttoning a jersey of a major league uniform is like running through four miles of mine-strewn jungle. And the closer the player gets to the finish line, the tougher it gets.

API Selections from June 5 First-Year Player Draft Bronson Sardinha • INF • Kamehameha H.S. • New York Yankees, 34th overall Kaulana Kuhaulua • INF • Long Beach St. • Minnesota Twins, 12th round Shane Komine • RHP • Nebraska • St. Louis Cardinals, 19th round Bryce Uegawachi • INF • Hawaii Pacific • Cleveland Indians, 26th round Neto Quiroz • LHP • Saddleback J.C. • Cleveland Indians, 38th round Duke Sardinha • INF • Pepperdine • Colorado Rockies, 41st round

“1,500 players drafted, 1,500 players released”

The first mile, Rookie League, is usually for high school and junior college draft picks. These leagues start right after the annual First-Year Player Draft in early June. Instruction, rather than winning, is the most important factor in this league. If the player is fortunate enough to advance, the next step is Class A, then Double-A, and then finally, Triple-A. As the player continues to rise in the organization’s system, competition usually gets fiercer, since major league teams only field one Double-A and Triple-A team each, while Class A and Rookie League squads can number four or five.

“The process that they go through is very tough,” Tokunaga says. “They have to learn how to adjust and be able to compete every single day at that level. Baseball is a game of consistency. You can’t just have one good game.”

Ask any current minor league player what his biggest fear is. Answer: the draft. Because of the inevitable demise of hundreds of other minor league players, June is the month that makes their knees tremble. “You know, there is a saying, ‘1,500 players drafted, 1,500 players released,’” says Cleveland Indians scout Darren Chun. In an instant, a player’s dream turns into nothing but powder. Maybe he didn’t develop at the rate the organization hoped. Maybe it was his age. Or maybe it was an injury that will never heal properly.

The reason why so many players filter through the minor league system could be the scrupulous task of predicting major league talent. From 1987 through 1996, 95 of the 270 players selected in the first round did not make the major leagues. The Atlanta Braves Steve Avery was the only first-round pitcher to win at least 50 games. And for all draftees (50 rounds worth), less than 10 percent ever make it to “The Show.” In contrast, first-round draft picks in the NFL and NBA are usually thrown into starting roles for their respective teams. Baseball players, meanwhile, pack their suitcases for a nomadic life on busses that can last for years before they can check into a five-star hotel. That is, if they don’t first receive a pink slip after the next draft.

“[Baseball draft picks] have a longer road than the other sports’ draft picks,” Chun says. “They have to succeed at each level in order to move up, or else they will get released.”

Kuhaulua, a 12th round draft pick, is 95 percent sure he will forego his senior season at Long Beach State to enter the Minnesota Twins minor league system. Photo courtesy of Long Beach State athletic department.

From Hawaii to the Frozen Tundra

While pursuing his dream of reaching the major leagues, Long Beach State middle infielder Kaulana Kuhaulua won’t be lugging around his surfboard anytime soon. That’s because he will be riding busses in the Minnesota Twins minor league system, who drafted him in the 12th round. “I was expecting to be drafted where I was,” Kuhaulua says.

Being drafted is nothing new for the junior from Honolulu, Hawaii. He was drafted twice before; after his freshman and sophomore seasons at Los Angeles Community College (39th round by the Detroit Tigers in 1999 and 17th round by the St. Louis Cardinals in 2000). Heralded as one of the top junior college players in the nation after hitting .424 with 10 stolen bases in 2000, Kahaulua transferred to Long Beach State University.

“I had a pretty good year when I was a sophomore, but as a little kid, I always wanted to play in the College World Series, so I just gave Division I baseball a shot,” Kahaulua says. “I thought I was still immature and had much to learn and wanted to go back to school to improve my game a little more.”

Entering a new program and facing Division I pitchers, Kahaulua had a disappointing first season with the bat at Long Beach State. But Kahaulua went higher in this year’s draft than he did the previous two years. According to major league scouts, his numbers did not reflect his natural tools, such as his arm and foot speed. “You could tell that he was quick and had a plus arm,” Chun says. “He struggled, but he showed that he could play at that level.” Kahaulua is 95-percent sure he will sign and expects to be placed in the advanced Rookie League.

“My numbers weren’t really great this year, but I think I have the physical tools to be a good player,” Kahaulua says. “I think I’m ready, and I just want to go out and play. I might not get this opportunity again, so I want to get this going.”

The Five-Tool Player

Many sportswriters say Hall-of-Fame outfielder Willie Mays was the best five-tool player ever. He could hit, hit with power, throw, field and run. That is the standard by which baseball scouts assess young players today. Scouts yearn for the complete player, even though many of today’s major league All-Stars are one-dimensional, for example Mark McGwire and Frank Thomas.

“Everybody knows that there are five tools to look for in a player,” Tokunaga says. “In reality, it is so simple. But you also have to interpret it the right way. You and I can go to the same game and look at the same player, but we will probably see two totally different games.”

Indeed, it is the scout’s personal perspective that can throw the draft out of whack. Can’t-miss prospects like 1991 first-round draft picks Brien Taylor and Mike Kelly, never had as much as a cup of coffee in the big leagues. Undoubtedly, they had the physical tools, but injuries and lack of adjustment to professional ball thwarted their careers.

But even through those draft atrocities, many scouts still consider Kamehameha High School shortstop Bronson Sardinha, selected 34th overall by the New York Yankees in this year’s draft, as a blue-chip draft pick. “Sardinha has a very good work ethic,” Chun says. “He’s going to be a good fit for that organization.”

Sardinha, who has a baseball scholarship to Pepperdine University, is a fetching archetype of the contemporary major league shortstop. Like current superstars Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, the left-handed hitting Sardinha has a big body, standing 6-foot-1 and weighing 210 pounds. Sardinha also has the ability to run and possesses an outstanding arm — two tools that can’t be taught.

“He’s got everything you look for,” Tokunaga says. “He’s got a good arm, good hands and speed.”

Because of his height and recurring back problems, Komine, a two-time All-American at the University of Nebraska, slipped to the 19th round. Photo courtesy of University of Nebraska athletic department.

The Mailroom to the Bigs

Surprisingly, University of Nebraska pitcher Shane Komine lasted until the 19th round before being selected by the St. Louis Cardinals, even though he was two-time All-American and posted an impressive 14-2 record this year in leading the Cornhuskers to their first-ever College World Series appearance. But at 5-feet-9 and 175 pounds, many scouts believe Komine lacks the prototypical body of a power pitcher, and his recurring back problems didn’t give major league organizations much assurance in his health.

“Organizations look for 6-foot-plus pitchers because they can get a better angle towards home plate,” Chun says. “When you’re a shorter pitcher, the ball usually stays on the same plane and is easier to hit.”

But those assumptions don’t always work out. Take, for instance, Boston Red Sox right-hander Pedro Martinez, the best pitcher in baseball today, who also stands less than 6 feet tall. During his stint in the minor leagues, the Los Angeles Dodgers refused to give Martinez a legitimate shot in proving that he could be a major league starting pitcher because they didn’t think his small frame could handle throwing 100-plus pitches every five days. The Dodgers later traded him to the Montreal Expos. And the rest is history.

So could be the members of this year’s draft class. Gold-plated draft picks like Sardinha might receive a seven-figure bonus and a paved path to the big leagues. But they have to produce just like everybody else. And someone the likes of Kahaulua will always be peering over their shoulder for an opportunity to advance in the organization. In some cases, solely through grit and desire, lower picks do reach their ultimate goal — the major leagues.

“Reaching the majors is the only reason I play this game,” Kahaulua says. “I dream about it all the time.”