With mayoral candidates unlikely to draw a majority in the Nov. 4 election, conventional wisdom is that a December runoff is inevitable.It will most likely include Supervisor Gavin Newsom, who has consistently finished in first place in summer and fall polls.
The only unsettled issue is who faces Newsom in the runoff.
Competition for the second spot has intensified among Board of Supervisors President Matt Gonzalez, civil rights attorney Angela Alioto and Supervisor Tom Ammiano. As a result, a bitter campaign among the three could make it difficult to unite a liberal-progressive ticket against the moderate Newsom.
In recent weeks, Gonzalez has been turning his gun on Ammiano. The attacks have acknowledged that Ammiano has a tenuous hold on second place behind Newsom, who had 37 percent support, according to the latest business community poll. Meanwhile, Gonzalez with 11 percent and Alioto with 10 percent are within striking distance to overtake Ammiano’s 16 percent support.
ALIOTO ALSO HITS TOM: Earlier this month, Alioto publicized her own internal poll, jabbing Ammiano. Alioto pollster Doug Schoen put Ammiano in the worst light by showing Ammiano’s declining support from 25 to 13 percent between January and September. The same polling painted Alioto (not Gonzalez or Ammiano) as the candidate who could beat Newsom.
However, relations between Alioto and Ammiano may be warming, lending to speculation that both have a pact to the support the other in a race against Newsom.
MATT HITS TOM: Just two weeks ago, Gonzalez sent a mailer to voters with the endorsements from activist Tsuyako “Sox” Kitashima, Deputy Sheriffs’ Association president David Wong and Public Defender Jeff Adachi. Gonzalez pointed out that he stood on the opposite side of issues than Newsom. Simultaneously, Gonzalez pointed out that Ammiano was almost a Newsom clone on key issues. He accused Newsom and Ammiano of doing little to eliminate the city’s patronage system of special assistants. Gonzalez also ripped Ammiano for supporting a $78 million corporate business tax settlement.
A Gonzalez-released poll conveyed the message that a Gonzalez-Newsom race would be a statistical tie, and his campaign has implied that he can beat Newsom.
TOM HITS BACK: In response, Ammiano directed a hit at Gonzalez in an Oct. 25 Chinatown debate: “The spoiler dynamic is not going to be honored in San Francisco.”
To counter Gonzalez and Alioto, Ammiano also has passionately reminded his progressive base that he recruited and helped elect like-minded supervisors and has advanced their agenda (public power, open government, district elections).
APPEAL TO APAs: At the same time, Ammiano has for two years tried to downplay his firebrand progressivism to attract key moderate swing votes, especially among Asian Pacific Americans.
Few progressives of the Ammiano/Gonzalez/Alioto variety can be found among APAs. In fact, professor Richard DeLeon — whose decade-long study of the city’s progressive politics has included writing the book Left Coast City — analyzed the city’s precincts in July. In 95 precincts with a majority of APA voting-age residents, DeLeon labeled 64 as conservative, 32 as moderate and only one as progressive.
In particular, one redoubt of moderates is the heavily APA Richmond neighborhood, which is a prime Ammiano campaign target. In 1998, Ammiano edged Mabel Teng in this bellwether district and won the board presidency.
DeLeon’s study reflects APA voters that are likely to lean toward mom-and-pop landlords on rent control issues in a pro-tenant city. The precincts also reflect APA homeowners who are wary of property tax increases because of the city’s rising bond debt.
Ammiano shifted from firebrand liberal as the 2001-02 board of supervisors president. He worked with the chamber of commerce for passage of the $1.6 billion Hetch-Hetchy water infrastructure revenue bond (to the ire of Ammiano’s base of environmentalist and tenant groups). Ammiano also worked for increased tenant sharing of property taxes.
GRAY TOM: Ammiano also has gone from an anti-establishment, stand-up gay comic to an established family man. His latest campaign literature included a photo of him with his daughter and grand-daughter and emphasized his age (61 years), his 40 years living in the city, his status as “senior member” of the supervisors and his “experienced leadership” — a contrast to the 38-year-old Gonzalez and the 36-year-old Newsom.
At the Oct. 23 Chinese American Veterans mayoral debate hosted by Cathay Post 384, Ammiano said, “If there’s any group appreciates longevity and if any group doesn’t blow off someone because they just happen to be over 50 [years old], it’s this group.”
While broadening his appeal, Ammiano has alienated his progressive allies, thus encouraging defections to Alioto and Gonzalez. The San Francisco Bay Guardian newspaper, which supported Ammiano’s miraculous 1999 write-in mayoral campaign, snubbed him this year for Alioto.
However, here’s the lesson. If Ammiano stays on the far left (progressive), he’ll lose the mayor’s race. If he edges from progressive (ultra-liberal) to liberal or liberal-centrist, he could win by avoiding the devastating APA landslides that factored into the victories of Frank Jordan in 1991 and Willie Brown in 1999.