Governor’s Race
Rumors around the Capitol are that there is only another week left in the window period that big democratic money sources are giving Angelides to turn things around before they fold up their tents. I actually expected a better campaign from Angelides because he has always been such a detailed perfectionist. There are many sides to this brilliant, competitive, political policy wonk. My daughter, Stephanie, a former babysitter for the Angelides family, sees a different side of Angelides, and that is as a warm, wonderful father. Unfortunately, Phil also has a reputation for riding rough shod on a number of prominent democrats in the past, which may explain why his democratic support base is only at 60 percent. However, labor is pouring in dollars, and I expect this to grow democratic support for Angelides as we get closer to Election Day.
I believe one of the factors helping Governor Schwarzenegger’s amazing turnaround this year is his willingness to surround himself with the best policy and political staff around without regard to their party affiliation. The fact that he is on a bill-signing road show with democratic legislative leaders by his side has not hurt his campaign either. However, there is some overkill on the dazzling bill-signing productions.
Prediction: Schwarzenegger prevails.
Lieutenant Governor’s Race
I have worked with the two leading candidates for this office and found them both to be hardworking, dedicated elected officials. Republican candidate Tom McClintock is one of the brightest members I have worked with in the Capitol. However, he is a poster child of the staunch fiscal conservative faction of the republican caucus and he is proud of it. Democrat John Garamendi, on the other hand, started his public service with the Peace Corps and is considered a moderate democrat advocating for the consumer and the environment. Both candidates share a lot in common in terms of statewide ambitions for the top post, high name-recognition and favorability among voters.
Prediction: Garamendi’s role as the current Insurance Commissioner helps him win this race.
Attorney General’s Race
Former Gov. and current Oakland Mayor Jerry Brown’s race against republican senator Chuck Poochigian shows Brown leading widely. Poochigian, former appointment secretary to Gov. Deukmejian, is fighting hard trying to portray Brown as soft on crime. But, Brown’s statewide name ID and law enforcement support is strong. I expect Brown to get a lot of support from the APA communities because of his record of APA judicial appointments during his governorship and his efforts in helping to professionalize and contemporize the practice of acupuncture.
Prediction: Brown re-enters state politics in 2007.
State Treasurer’s Race
Here in Capitol city, there seems to be no question of who is going to win this race. Democratic candidate Attorney General Bill Lockyer, former Senate Pres. Pro Tem, has statewide name-recognition, millions in the bank and an opponent with little name-recognition.
Lockyer should do well with the APA voters because of his strong track record working with the community to address hate crimes and civil rights issues.
His opponent republican Claude Parrish is a termed-out member of the State Board of Equalization. He comes from a successful business career in the finance and securities industry, but it is difficult to raise enough money to mount formidable campaign against a powerhouse like Lockyer.
Prediction: Lockyer coasts to victory.
State Controller’s Race
If democrat John Chiang wins this post, he will immediately become one of the most influential Asian political figures in the country. The Sacramento Bee has touted him as one of the brightest democratic stars in California. His republican opponent, former Assemblyman Tony Strickland, is known to be a member of the more conservative arm of the republican caucus. He is relatively unknown statewide, but he is raising a lot of money from wealthy republican donors who feel they have a shot at this race because of the large number of undecided voters. Chiang is working hard to keep pace with Strickland’s fundraising advantage.
There is serious concern among Chiang’s supporters that a big Angelides gap will mean a low turnout of democratic voters harming all the democratic candidates down the ticket.
Prediction: APA voters will vote in record numbers. The pattern of APA voters voting across party lines for APA candidates and the fact that APA voters have the largest number of “declined to state” voters (30 percent) help deliver a Chiang victory.
Secretary of State’s Race
When incumbent Secretary of State Bruce McPherson was nominated by Gov. Schwarzenegger to replace the fallen Kevin Shelley, he was confirmed by every democrat and republican in the Legislature. This demonstrated the respect the legislators had for the former senator. He continues to have bipartisan support because of his admirable job in bringing back integrity to the Secretary of State’s office after a very troubled period. The democratic candidate Sen. Debra Bowen is a staunch campaign reform candidate and her fight for consumer protection, privacy rights, choice and open government is well-established. She is not as well-known as McPherson, but enjoys the advantage of being the only viable democratic woman candidate running in the top five statewide seats.
Prediction: Toss-up
Will the ‘Sleeping Giant’ Awaken on Election Day?
According to the UCLA Asian American Studies Center and the UC Asian American and Pacific Islander Policy Initiative, the number of APAs in California eligible to register to vote is now 2.5 million, 12 percent of the state’s population of eligible voters. The never-ending challenge is how to effectively convert this potential force into voters and a much stronger voice in this state. Numbers don’t mean a thing unless it can be used to cause an impact. Hopefully, with a record number of APA candidates (27) running for local, state and federal offices this year, we will see an awakening giant wield its influence to make a difference at the polls.
All of these predictions are based upon a mid to high turnout of state voters on Election Day. If there is a low turnout of voters and the democrats stay home, all bets are off.
VOTE ON NOV. 7.