GenerASIAN Next: The Power of 1 Million New Asian American Voters

Are there any seismic changes that could ‘change the face’ of California’s political landscape, and change the fate of California’s Electoral College votes?

You bet there is. For the first time in California’s history, an unprecedented number of Asian Americans are running for Congressional and State Offices on California’s November 7, 2006, ballot, 26 to be exact: 14 Asian American democrats (6 female; 8 male), 11 Asian American republicans (5 female; 6 male) and 1 Asian American Libertarian (male).

Will they all win? No. Why?

Two Asian Americans are running against other Asian Americans. Many are running against the odds — 7 Asian American republicans are running in democratic enclaves and 3 Asian American democrats and 1 Asian American Libertarian are running in republican enclaves.

So why run? To increase electoral representation?

The real increase in Asian American electoral representation occurred between 1998-2004, when representation tripled from 4 to 11 seats. On November 7th, 2006, it is impossible for all 26 Asian American candidates to win, but it is possible that Asian Americans could pick up 2-4 more seats.

So why run? To win at the top?

While the Asian American vote is a hot commodity because Asian Americans are California’s 3rd largest vote bloc, it is important to recognize that Asian Americans are not a monolith, and Asian Americans don’t always vote as one bloc.
But Asian Americans do turn out to vote for fellow APAs. Every Asian American running at the base of the ticket will generate votes for the top of the ticket. In contrast to presidential elections where the “winner takes all,” 2006 is a mid-term election, where every vote counts, regardless of where Asian Americans vote, and regardless of which Asian American wins or loses at the local level. The key to a successful win at the top, depends on registering and turning out the greatest number of voters, in-person or absentee.
Who wins at the top of the ticket could influence the direction of California’s Electoral College votes, and the 2008 presidential outcome. For example, surveys in 2004 found that 64 percent of California’s Asian American voters voted for John Kerry and 34 percent voted for George Bush.
Traditionally, candidates rely on turning out those who are most likely to vote. With regards to Asian Americans, it is important to remember that 1.1 million APAs voted, but 200,000+ registered Asian American voters did not. Bottom line, a candidate can focus on the margin to turn out 200,000 to 300,000 Asian American infrequent voters, but at the end of the day, the landslide of win will go to the candidate who expands his/her market share, by aiming to register and turn out 1.2 million new Asian Americans voters.

Asian Americans Decide! But only if we begin today.

Starting October 10, 2006, California absentee ballots have begun to be mailed out, and the 2006 general election count has begun. If Asian Americans want to decide who wins, we have to register new Asian American voters, and swing more Independent voters, to vote absentee and in person. Only in that way can Asian Americans reach their full potential, and determine who among the State Legislative, State Congressional and Congressional Offices, Asian American, and non-Asian American, will win.
To empower American democracy, Asian Americans in California must aim for our full potential — 12 percent of the vote in 2006, 13 percent of the vote by 2008 and 14 percent of the vote by 2010.