Vindicated: What Next for Gen. Shinseki?
December 10, 2008
President-elect Barack Obama’s cabinet post nomination of retired Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki was a clear vindication of the highest-ranking APA military officer in history. Shinseki was undermined by Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and his deputy for presciently warning Congress and the Bush White House weeks before the March 2003 Iraq invasion that the United States would need “several hundred thousand soldiers” to invade and occupy that country. He retired the following June… But what is significant is that Shinseki, born and raised in Hawai‘i like Obama, could be groomed for another office. Obama has retained Bush’s Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who has pledged to stay a least a year to ease a wartime cabinet transition. Gates gives Obama’s defense and national security appointees a moderate and bipartisan air - like former Democratic San Jose Congressman and Mayor Norman Mineta, whom Bill Clinton selected as commerce secretary and who stayed on under Republican George W. Bush as transportation secretary. With Gates possibly leaving during Obama’s first term, Shinseki - assuming he is successful as veteran affairs secretary - is a likely candidate for Obama’s short list of Gates’ successors. The 37-year army veteran was an early 1999 proponent of “transformation” to make a more deployable, lighter, mobile army. With a military straining its dollars on two war fronts, Shinseki’s strategic vision could find empathy with Obama’s. Future wars would resemble more the quick 2001 U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, which required few U.S. troops, and less the overwhelming U.S. force that expelled Iraq from Kuwait in 1991…SENATOR SHINSEKI? Shinseki’s future could depend on the two U.S. Senators from Hawai‘i ripening on the political grapevine: 84-year-old Chinese and Hawaiian American Daniel Akaka, who is up for re-election in 2012, and 84-year-old Japanese American Daniel Inouye, who’s up in 2010. In 2006, Akaka won another term comfortably in the general election but had to repel a strong primary challenge by Democratic Congressman Ed Case. Inouye is the stronger of two senators and increased his clout as the recently ordained chairman of the powerful Appropriations Committee. He has also brought home the poi (not the bacon) to the tune of $173 million in defense earmarks and appropriations for fiscal year 2008. With that clout, Inouye should have no problem keeping Hawai‘i residents happy and thereby earn a ninth term… If Inouye wraps it up, that could trigger a 2010 election round robin for his seat. Or, if he should leave before his term is up, that could open it up for gubernatorial appointment. But adding to the intrigue is that Republican Linda Lingle will still be governor through December 2010 in what ostensibly is a Democratic state. And with a U.S. Senate seat up for grabs, Democrats and Republicans will fight it out. Democrats, who have 58 seats, are aiming for a filibuster-proof majority of 60 or more. With last week’s re-election of the GOP’s Saxby Chambliss in Georgia demonstrated, Republicans have at least 41 or more seats to avoid being steamrolled by the Obama or Senate Democratic agenda. No one should expect Lingle to select a Democrat to replace Inouye, including Shinseki…
HAWAIIAN TIES: Shinseki is in a prime spot as secretary of veterans affairs to become a U.S. senator. He can aid Hawai‘i’s more than 120,000 veterans who make up 13 percent of the islands. They’re an important enough constituency for Dan Akaka to chair the Veterans Affairs Committee - a staging ground for securing long-denied benefits for Filipino American veterans from World War II… Added to that, Hawai‘i’s economy depends on military funds pumped in by Inouye, who won re-election easily in 1998 and 2004… SHINSEKI & INOUYE: Both Shinseki and Inouye share distinguished military careers. The 66-year old Shinseki - losing a foot to a land mine - received two Purple Hearts in Vietnam. Inouye - losing an arm - was decorated for his 442nd “Go for Broke” unit service with the Congressional Medal of Honor… Both have military expertise, with Inouye steering funding to various defense projects in Hawai‘i…But the question is whether the low-key Shinseki - no stranger to appointment and Pentagon politics - can adopt to electoral politics. It won’t be a cakewalk as Akaka’s 2006 primary race for re-election demonstrated. Further, any vacancy will attract a number of candidates - like former Lt. Governor Mazie Hirono - whose own successful congressional race could be trial run for a U.S. Senate seat. When she ran for Ed Case’s open seat, seven other major candidates ran for the 2006 Democratic nomination - including APAs Colleen Hanabusa, Matt Matsunaga, Clayton Hee, Ron Menor, and Nestor Garcia…
OBAMA’S MILITARY CREDENTIALS: Although Shinseki will oversee veteran affairs, his presence in the cabinet bolsters Obama more as a moderate than as a liberal (or as the “change” candidate he pledged) with his nominations of Defense Secretary Gates, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, National Security Advisor James Jones (a former four-star Marine Corps general himself) and Homeland Security nominee Janet Napolitano, a moderate on undocumented immigration. Obama will have the lesson of Bill Clinton - chastised for not serving in the military and alienating the military for his gays-in-the-military “don’t ask don’t tell” policy. Like Clinton, Obama did not serve like Republican White House nominee John McCain, a naval aviator, officer and POW hero…Shinseki and Jones appointments also sends a message about reversing former Defense Secretary Rumsfeld’s politicizing selections of flag officers. That led to decisions that did not heed Shinseki’s warning for more troops. Rumsfeld and his deputy, Paul Wolfowitz, belittled Shinseki for being “off the mark.” Although President Bush launched an undermanned invasion that toppled Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, it brought chaos to Iraq and a costly six-year American-led occupation…CLOSER TO THE PRESIDENCY: Shinseki becomes the fourth APA to hold cabinet rank - twice by former San Jose Congressman Norman Mineta (Commerce and Transportation) and Elaine Chao (Labor), the longest-serving secretary among the original Bush appointees. In a doomsday scenario, Shinseki ranks 18th in the line of succession should something befall the president….Inouye’s 45 years as senator ranks after West Virginia’s Robert Byrd (50 years on Jan. 3) and Massachusetts Ted Kennedy’s 46 years. 91-year-old Byrd as the Senate president pro tempore is fourth in the line of presidential succession after VP-elect Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi if tragedy should occur. Inouye, however, could be waiting in the wings to replace Byrd, who has already relinquished the arduous task of chairing Appropriations to Inouye. And 76-year-old Kennedy has returned to office but is facing long-term treatment for a malignant brain tumor…NOT THE ENEMY: There’s more symbolism - Obama nominated the Hawai‘i-born Shinseki on the 67th anniversary of Pearl Harbor attack that led to the internment of 120,000 Japanese Americans during World War II and reinforced perceptions that APAs were the “perpetual foreigner” and the enemy…SEPARATED BY BIRTH DATES: Senators Akaka and Inouye were born four days apart. Akaka was born on Sept. 11, 1924, and Inouye on Sept. 7…
OUTRANKED: Shinseki’s nomination for veterans secretary beats out Illinois Department of Veteran Affairs Director and reservist Maj. Tammy Duckworth out of the running. Duckworth, who lost both legs in Iraq, lost a bid for congress in 2006. Then again, fellow Illini Obama might find another place for her in his administration…
OVER THERE: Sunnyvale councilmember Otto Lee got his marching orders last week. The reservist and former contender for Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors and army reservist is off to Iraq on Jan. 1. The patent attorney is a commander in the U.S. Naval Reserves Supply Corps…
Reach Samson Wong at swong@asianweek.com.
Comments
One Response to “Vindicated: What Next for Gen. Shinseki?”
Got something to say?
Secretary Gates’ troop increases under the ambit of the new administration are for the wrong reason. By all means send more troops to seal the borders and complete search and destroy operations, but exit immediately the mission is achieved. The notion that this would leave Afghanistan in the hands of rulers willing to pursue terrorism is valid, but propping up failed leaders doesn’t work. Since November 2001, Karzai has allowed Afghanistan to be carved up by warlords who openly operate on the superhighway—built by millions of Washington dollars—between Kabul and Herat. He also failed to quell the resurgence of Taliban, Hisb-i-Islami, and Haqqanis fighters who rampage throughout the country. He was unilaterally prepared to meet with Taliban leaders to negotiate a peace. ‘If I say I want protection for Mullah Omar, the international community has two choices: remove me or leave.’ He knows full well that if the US/coalition forces pull out he wouldn’t last a week. What gives Karzai the confidence to issue ultimatums? As a past consultant for the Union Oil Company of California, Karzai knows that the oil corporations need the pipeline from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to the Arabian Sea for the huge Asian markets and he believes that America will grovel rather than lose that oil, after all the US burns 20million barrels of oil per day (that’s one cubic mile of oil per year) and 60% of this is imported. So how different is the Obama administration going to be from its predecessors? I wrote a book http://www.strategicbookpublishing.com/AClaytonsDefense.html which in part deals with these oil wars.