Is David Chiu Really In Trouble?

Is Board of Supervisors President David Chiu really in trouble in 2012?

RUN ROSE RUN: The Nov. 14 World Journal reported Chinatown powerhouse Rose Pak’s threatening to run for District 3 (Chinatown/North Beach) supervisor if there isn’t a strong alternative Chinese American candidate to former mayoral candidate and incumbent Supervisor David Chiu. Pak, advisor to the Chinese Chamber of Commerce has noted his support has declined. Affirming her observation, an electoral map analysis by David Lee, executive director of the non-partisan Chinese American Voters Education Committee, shows that Chiu lost his own supervisor district #3 (North Beach/Chinatown) to Ed Lee for mayor on Nov. 8, especially in core Chinatown precincts. Among first choice votes, Lee was first with 44% while Chiu was second with 14%, according to SF Department of Election Chinatown data. At last week’s Asia Society “Asian American Political Clout” post-election analysis panel including this AsianWeek.com columnist, Lee noted Chiu’s vulnerable to a “pincer” strategy where he’d be squeezed by another Chinese American (if Pak moves in the district or recruits a candidate) and a Telegraph Hill neighborhood candidate like former district supervisor Aaron Peskin…Even Chiu’s consultant, University of San Francisco lecturer David Latterman, admitted that “[David Chiu will] see challengers from both sides” during his Nov. 9 SPUR election post mortem discussion…

David Latterman predicts challengers against his mayoral client and Board of Supervisors President David Chiu in 2012.

INCUMBENCY & PRESIDENCY: Despite ominous warnings and Chiu’s citywide 4^th place (9% of vote) loss to the mayor, his 2012 re-election campaign for supervisor has the advantage of incumbency and the Board Presidency. So far, no incumbent has lost a seat since the mass extinction of 2000 incumbents – Districts 1 Supervisor Michael Yaki, Alicia Becerril of D3 (North Beach/Chinatown), Mabel Teng of D7 (West of Twin Peaks) and Amos Brown of D11 (Excelsior/Outer Mission) when the city reverted from citywide to district supe elections…CITYWIDE PROFILE: Further, Chiu’s transformed from a district candidate with “shared progressive values” to a citywide profile as Board President and mayoral candidate supported by moderate-conservatives like the Chronicle newspaper endorsement, SF Association of Realtors and more than $1.1 million in donations and public financing…BOARD WHIP OR LOG JAM: Chiu could be key to Mayor Lee’s ability to move his budget and agenda. He won the Presidency under two different boards – progressive leaning (2009-10) and then liberal-center (2011-current) – demonstrating a skill at putting votes together. If Chiu and Lee bury the hatchet, then it’s smoother sailing for both. If it’s a stormy relationship, then Chiu faces a tougher re-election…

Entrepreneur and mayoral candidate Joanna Rees nearly pulled Proposition H to victory with a $125,000 contribution and last hour ad campaign.

WATCH THIS JUNE: Look for a June 2012 preview of a November supervisor challenge to David Chiu when his SF Democratic County Central Committee seat is up for election, as will be potential District 3 supervisor rival and party chairman Aaron Peskin. If Chiu overwhelmingly wins his seat as expected to represent the endorsement and organizing arm of the SF Democratic Party, then he’s less vulnerable for supervisor in November. If Chiu has a weak showing, does not run or loses his seat, Peskin and Pak-recruited candidates have more motivation to run against a perceived weak incumbent supervisor from District 3 in Nov. 2012….

FROM SLIM TO NONE: Prop H, after holding a slim lead for 10 days since Nov. 8 election night, has lost by 115 votes, or 50.03% to 49.97%. “We have called for a recount with the Department of Elections,” said Yes on Prop H consultant Johnny K. Wang. However, a recount could cost the campaign up to $50,000. “There were serious [statistical] anomalies from the counting of late and provisional ballots,” Wang contended.  Returns were “definitely suspicious” when there were “massive shifts from a few thousand votes.”…Meanwhile, Prop H opponents, the United Educators of San Francisco, spent more than $93,000 to defeat the measure in just the last month of the campaign. “Had it passed, the misguided and poorly worded initiative would have meant the city of San Francisco was officially on record standing against parent choice and diversity in our schools”…. The Yes on H campaign spent more than $15,164 as of Aug.22, but was backed by a separate Oct. campaign of TV ads thru mayoral candidate and entrepreneur Joanna Rees, who alone injected $125,000 through a separate committee…

Heavy Republican and conservative early endorsements hurt Proposition H.

SHOT ITSELF IN THE FOOT: The Yes on H or Students First campaign, rooted in the 1999 Ho vs. SF Unified School District settlement ending discrimination against Chinese American kids in student assignments, hurt itself by not appearing bipartisan in the voter handbook. The campaign introduced itself to more than 492,000 SF voters through its Chair, Chris Miller of the SF Republican County Central Committee followed by predominantly conservative arguments from the SF Chamber of Commerce, Citizens for a Better San Francisco, SF Republican Party and mayoral candidate Tony Hall. Meanwhile, No on H exploited this bent by calling Miller an “ideologue” and labeling her a Republican when a majority of the SF electorate is Democratic … Meanwhile, Asian Pacific American, Democratic and moderate support for H were underutilized or ignored, including support from the Chinese American Democratic Club, Plan C, African American Democratic Club, City Democratic Club and mayoral candidates Rees (registered independent), Michela Alioto-Pier (moderate Democrat) and Public Defender Jeff Adachi (progressive Democrat)…

Mayor Ed Lee and Board of Supervisors President David Chiu may depend on each other to enact legislation and a budget.

FOURTH TIME, MYRNA?: Pundits are debating 2012 tea leaves for District 11 (Excelsior/Outer Mission) Supervisor John Avalos. Like Chiu, the mayoral candidate lost his heavily Filipino and Chinese American district for the mayor’s race, but CAVEC’s David Lee notes that Avalos held on to his 2008 core base for supervisor when he ran for mayor. That won’t prevent comers from taking Avalos on. Pollster Latterman joshed, “Legally you can’t hold a [District 11 supervisor] race without Myrna Lim” – a reference to the thrice candidate in 2000, 2004 and 2008. However, the effervescent community cable TV host and businesswoman is no joke, considering her strong second and third place finishes….

MARRIAGE VOWS & OATH OF OFFICE: From Assemblywoman Fiona Ma’s lips to Oxnard Harbor Commissioner Jason Hodge for their Nov. 12 nuptials. “I vow to be honest, caring and truthful but will not hesitate to let you know if I think you are wrong…I will apologize to you if I am wrong… and will laugh and cry with you through good times and bad, including our own elections.” Sounds like sage advice for all 16 mayoral candidates, including Mayor Lee, Board President Chiu, Public Defender Adachi, State Senator Leland Yee, Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting and music teacher Wilma Pang. Happy Thanksgiving…

MISS ME?: Email Samson Wong at potsticker@prodigy.net.