SADISTICAL STATISTICS – THE MIRKARIMI POLL

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Supervisor Eric Mar straightens out his campaign finance reports.

At least one daily should be very careful when using an Aug. 18-19 poll to gauge ethnic voter sentiment on ousting suspended SF Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi.  North Carolina’s Public Policy Polling had interviewed 50 Asian Pacific American (APA) voters or 10% of 500 total SF voters, which is unrepresentative given nearly one-fifth of SF voters is APA, according to Chinese American Voters Education Committeeestimates. Further, campaign manager Jim Ross –running David Lee’s supervisor bid – cautioned about interpreting APA voter data, considering PPP conducted a “robocall” survey without interviewing Chinese-language voters who also make up a substantial segment of SF voters. The PPP survey did find that 58% of APA voters were “less likely” to re-elect a supervisor. Meanwhile 10% were “more likely” to vote for the candidate while 23% said the Mirkarimi finding didn’t make a difference. 69% of APA voters wanted him removed while 21% said he should not be…

STAND WITH ROSS AND…: You’ll be tossed. Although there’s a debate about how the poll was conducted, 51% of 500 SF voters said they would “likely” vote against a supervisor not supporting the August 16 SF Ethics Commission finding that suspended SF Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi was guilty of misconduct. 19% were “more likely” to support a supervisor while 30% were not sure or said the Mirkarimi decision “wouldn’t make a difference.” The more than 2-to-1 ratio will pressure supervisors this October, especially in the midst of the campaign season. For hotly contested races, the Mirkarimi issue could be the tipping point in District 1 between incumbent Eric Mar and former commissioner David Lee and District 5 between appointee Christina Olague and challengers London BreedJohn RizzoJulian Davis and others. The Mirkarimi decision is swaying the District 7 race where Norman Yee and FX Crowley have already urged supervisors to remove him…

District 7 supervisor candidate FX Crowley

BY DISTRICT: With as few as 35 to 60 voters surveyed, the data on each APA supervisor or major APA district up for election: District 1 (Eric Mar – Richmond) 45% less likely, 19% more likely; District 3 (David Chiu - Chinatown/North Beach) 63%-9%; District 5 (Christina Olague – Japantown/Haight-Ashbury) 42%-19%; District 7 (major candidates Crowley, Garcia, Yee and others West of Twin Peaks) 61%-18%; and District 11 (John Avalos - Excelsior/Ingleside) 41%-16%. The rest of voters in the districts said they were “not sure” or the Commission decision “wouldn’t make a difference”…

GOO-GOO BOO BOO?: A good government boo-boo by a candidate or SF Ethics Commission? Board of Supervisor candidates face fines, jail time and other penalties if they fail to file a report within 24 hours exceeding $100,000 in donations or expenses. Well, SF Ethics on its website knew Mar had exceeded the $100,000 threshold as of August 20 based on $63,603 in donations and a match of $56,446 in public financing. Even though Mar was required to report at the $100,000, $110,000 and $120,000 thresholds, his campaign did not file any reports within 24 hours ….NINE DAYS AFTER:The Mar campaign finally sent the Commission signed paperwork that it “reached [$100,000 and $130,000] on the same day” of August 29, nine days after Ethics showed Mar’s campaign passed the thresholds. However, Campaign Manager Nicole Derse said, “Ethics said we should wait to file until [August 29]” after clearing up a question about filing one or three forms after the $100,000 and $130,000 thresholds were passed…TWO DAYS TO CLEAR: Derse said it took two days for the Comptroller to transfer public financing funds and clear the bank. So, the Mar campaign allegedly never had some of the $56,446 in public financing to exceed the $100,000 threshold…

AMEND, AMEND, AMEND OR AMEN?: Routine corrections or sloppy paperwork? Likely to perk some interest is that Mar has e-filed 20 amended reports in July for his campaign finance disclosures for races since 2008, including supervisor and SF Democratic County Central Committee “Amendments are actually quite common to deal with small payments that are made after filing deadlines…No story here,” said Derse…

State Assembly candidate Phil Ting

PLEASE DON’T GO: One APA resident feared SF’s loss would be the California Assembly’s gain. Chooi Eng Grosso asked 19th Assembly District candidate Phil Ting, “I believe you have being doing a good job [as Assessor-Recorder] in San Francisco. Give me a reason why I should not keep you there?” In response, Ting cited reasons for not going to the State Assembly – a major pay cut, losing a city pension, longer commute to Sacramento and less time with wife and kids…

District 7 supervisor candidate Norman Yee

WHO GETS THE APPLE: Although School Board President Norman Yee could tout that he would be the “education” supervisor from District 7 (West of Twin Peaks), his fellow contender, securities arbitrator Mike Garcia, is competing with him – seven years teaching high school math in the Big Easy and finance and real estate investment at USF. He even tosses in that he was “elected” to the St. Stephen Catholic School board…GASPS IN THE ROOM: Former SF Ethics Commission President Garcia will “never stop bragging” about his son, Scott Biggs, winner of the SFPD’s highest award – Gold Medal of Valor. The proud papa simply said, “He is the police officer who shot the tiger in the zoo” to visceral gasps from Sunset Heights Association of Responsible People (SHARP) and Sunset District Democratic Club members. After nearly five years, it’s still vivid that a SF Zoo 243-pound Siberian Tiger fatally mauled teen Carlos Souza Jr. while preying on Paul Dhaliwal“Tatiana” had to be shot by medal awardees Biggs and officers Kevin O’LearyDaniel Kroos and Yukio “Chris” Oshita

District 7 supervisor candidate Mike Garcia

NAME OF HIS GAME: If his name was Francis Xavier, no one would know him except Catholic nuns. But FX Crowley, competing for District 7 seat, should be easily recognized. FX’s profession could be equated with 1986 movie FX – about a special effects guy in film. Meanwhile the last name Crowley is an old renowned SF union family…

GRRRLS RULE: As an alternative to rancorous SF Board of Supervisors era (2001-2010) of prickly Chris Daly and screamer Aaron Peskin, the calm and deliberative Norman Yee has claimed to “be the voice of reason” at the school board. Yee fits that mold of low key APA politicians (see “Potstickers” 8/9/12). Here’s another reason, he’s the only guy on the testosterone-challenged seven member school board, which includes APAs Sandra Lee Fewer and Hydra Mendoza. “I’m the only male, there are six females. They voted for me as President,” Yee said. That could be important in ranked choice voting, considering the occasionally divided school board was unified on either making him a supervisor, or kicking him off “Survivor” island of the SF Unified School District

IT’S THE ECONOMY STUPID: With jobs and the economy on the mind of most voters, candidates are repositioning their well-known credentials. Crowley has served as Secretary-Treasurer of the Bay Area Theatrical Federation and the executive committee of the powerful SF Labor Council. However, the former city commissioner at one public forum described himself as running a “successful motion picture theatrical performing arts and technicians group” for 15 years responsible for $1.03 billion in wages. That “group” is a labor union…Likewise, Yee claims that he is “running small organizations as small businesses, growing one organization from a $200,000 to $10 million organization.” That organization is a major non-profit like Wu Yee Children’s Services…But neither union or non-profit involves risk taking where an investor could lose it all, says rival Mike Garcia, who’s laid it on the line at the Pacific Stock Exchange

BACK FROM THE BRINK: Likewise heavily APA 19th Assembly District westside SF candidate Phil Ting pounded on similar economic themes as being a guy who can “turnaround” education and the state’s budget woes a la Barack Obama seizing control of the decrepit US auto industry at the height of the Great Recession. “Considered one of the worst offices in San Francisco City Hall, but we turned it around,” Ting said about his Assessor-Recorder’s office generating $300 million for the city and clearing a backlog without raising taxes and thru efficiencies. “I’ve worked with organizations helping reform them.  I helped save a non-profit called the Asian Law Caucus from bankruptcy,” he added…

DOG SPELLED BACKWARDS: Ting’s opponent Michael Breyer in the race to succeed Assembly pro Tem Speaker Fiona Ma repeatedly evangelized “restoring faith in government.” Although the court technology entrepreneur meant rebuilding “confidence” in government as opposed to “faith” in the Bible Belt context. Then again, after Ting walloped him by 36 points in the June primary, does he have a prayer this November?…The former Library Commissioner called for reexamining the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA), which has improved the environment but gummed up job generating projects. Breyer cited rebuilding a branch library in a major APA community of North Beach. “That was delayed for years and years. Every year it was delayed the cost of the project went up and up and up,” he said. “We have to restore balance” when it comes to CEQA…

AsianWeek Foundation director Ted Fang (left), San Francisco’s grande dame Jane Morrison (right) and Chinatown family association leader Harrison Lim (not pictured) co-chaired the Aug. 29 “25 Years of Service” event honoring House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi.

MISS ME?: Follow me on Twitter at @SFPotstickers and email Samson Wong at potsticker@prodigy.net.

About the Author

Veteran columnist has appeared in up to 450,000 households weekly in the SF Independent, Examiner (2000-04) and AsianWeek since 1996. As Editor-in-Chief (2003-07), AsianWeek and Samson received wide recognition from the California Legislature, New American Media, League of Women Voters, GLAAD, Organization of Chinese Americans, SPUR and APA civic groups. Thru the SF Citizens Advisory Committee on Elections, SF Elections Task Force and Chinese American Voters Education Committee, Wong helped boost APA influence from 25,000 in the 1980s to over 50,000 voters by the early 1990s.